The Delphi technique is a structured forecasting method that relies on the opinions of a panel of experts. Here’s how it works:
Expert Panel: A group of experts in the relevant field is selected to provide their insights and forecasts.
Iterative Rounds: The process involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to the experts. After each round, a facilitator provides a summary of the forecasts and reasons provided by the panel.
Anonymity: Experts provide their opinions anonymously to prevent the influence of dominant individuals and to encourage unbiased input.
Convergence: Through iterative feedback and revisions, the panel’s forecasts tend to converge towards a consensus.
The Delphi technique is particularly useful for long-term forecasting and scenarios where quantitative data is scarce or unreliable.
References:
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Springer.
Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis." International Journal of Forecasting.
Contribute your Thoughts:
Chosen Answer:
This is a voting comment (?). You can switch to a simple comment. It is better to Upvote an existing comment if you don't have anything to add.
Submit